Two years into his administration — which means two years since his coalition won a landslide number of Diet seats and two years before the House of Representatives has to come up for grabs again — Prime Minister Abe decided to call an election. He says he wants this to be a referendum on Abenomics. It is, he says, basically a “how am I doing?” election.
The stock market is up, the yen is seriously weaker, the tax hike has provoked a degree of inflation, many big companies are scoring record profits, and even employment is up. However, according to a Tokyo Stock Exchange 2013 Shareownership Survey, only about 20 percent of the Japanese population owns stock, so the improvement there benefits mainly the people who do not need it. Yen depreciation has made exports more competitive or more profitable, but it has also made imports more expensive — which hurts food prices and innumerable smaller firms. Many companies have taken advantage of the tax-hike cover to raise their prices more than the tax hike alone would warrant, and wages have not kept up. Big companies are making money, but they are squirreling more of it away rather than investing it all in plant equipment or people. And the main gains in employment have been among the low-wage temp staff people with no security or other perks. In short, many people have yet to see any benefit from Abenomics.
There are also other issues on the table:
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For example, what about the promises the LDP made in the last election? To wit, the promise to reduce the number of Diet seats and even to achieve roughly equal weighting for votes regardless of where they are cast? To wit, the promise to beef up the social security provisions? To wit, the promise to introduce lower consumption tax rates on everyday necessities? All of these were part of the three-party agreement the LDP, DPJ, and Komeito signed on to before the last election. Yet nothing has happened on them despite the LDP-Komeito coalition’s having a commanding majority in both houses of the Diet. If they have not done these things, how can we believe any of the pretty promises they make this election season?
For example, what about the reinterpretation of the Constitution to allow “collective defense”? This is a major policy shift for Japan, yet it was effected not with a Diet resolution or a new law but with a simple Cabinet sign-off. Does Japan really want to be allowed (which is going to end up “obligated”) to spill blood in other nations’ wars of convenience (such as Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria)?
Abenomics is not the only question that will/should influence voter behavior, and it has the potential to be an interesting election if voters turn out. Unfortunately, indications are that voter turn-out will be low. I hope the indications are wrong and people actually take this windfall opportunity to tell Abe how they think he is doing.